The SaaS Market Is Pricing In Its Own Disruption
EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies are diverging dramatically. The pattern reveals which moats AI will erode — and which ones it won't.
The SaaS market is doing something it's never done before: pricing in the possibility that many of these companies simply shouldn't exist in five years.
I've been tracking EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies since Q1 2025. The divergence is staggering.
- Palantir: 28x → 80x
- Cloudflare: holding at 30x
- CrowdStrike: bounced back to 22x
- Adobe: 11.5x → 4.2x
- ServiceNow: 18x → 8.6x
- DocuSign: 4.8x → 3.0x
EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies, Q1 2025 – Q1 2026
The pattern is simple. If your moat is proprietary data that's hard to acquire, infrastructure that's expensive to replicate, or security where failure isn't an option — you're fine. If your moat is "we built the workflow first" — the market is starting to ask what happens when an LLM can build it in a weekend.
Not all SaaS is created equal anymore.
The full interactive visualization is available here. You can toggle the valuation used for March before and after Iran really started impacting markets.