The SaaS Market Is Pricing In Its Own Disruption

EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies are diverging dramatically. The pattern reveals which moats AI will erode — and which ones it won't.

Ricky Bureau
Ricky Bureau

The SaaS market is doing something it's never done before: pricing in the possibility that many of these companies simply shouldn't exist in five years.

I've been tracking EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies since Q1 2025. The divergence is staggering.

  • Palantir: 28x → 80x
  • Cloudflare: holding at 30x
  • CrowdStrike: bounced back to 22x
  • Adobe: 11.5x → 4.2x
  • ServiceNow: 18x → 8.6x
  • DocuSign: 4.8x → 3.0x
EV/Revenue multiples divergence across major SaaS companies

EV/Revenue multiples across 40 major software companies, Q1 2025 – Q1 2026

The pattern is simple. If your moat is proprietary data that's hard to acquire, infrastructure that's expensive to replicate, or security where failure isn't an option — you're fine. If your moat is "we built the workflow first" — the market is starting to ask what happens when an LLM can build it in a weekend.

Not all SaaS is created equal anymore.

The full interactive visualization is available here. You can toggle the valuation used for March before and after Iran really started impacting markets.